Can SA slay the Dragon at St George's?

It'll all be set up and decided in Game 5 or The Wanderers will be nothing more than a ticker-tape parade for the Proteas.

One article doing the rounds on the net suggests that history is in favour of the visitors, having won 7 out of 8 matches played there; SA go in with a 15 out of 23 record.

Hmm, that's the start of the questionable nature of this piece of "analysis". They then mention the fact that South Africa last beat the West Indies there last year. No comparison here: Australia and the West Indies are on opposite ends of the the cricket spectrum. The Proteas won that series 5-0. Caso cerrado.

To see how evenly matched these teams are in South Africa, lets go back to the last series here and the last match-up in PE. Australia won by 26 runs to keep the series alive after losing the first 2.

The visitors won by 26 runs, defending 254. Australia used Lee, Clark, Bracken and Hogg to achieve their task. The only reason why Stuart Clark and Brett Lee are not playing is due to injury (Clark arrived in SA on Sunday and looks part of future plans though; Lee is PE, but with his IPL team). Compare this with SA's bowling attack for tomorrow.

3 years ago to tomorrow - there will be no surviving bowlers. Don't fall off your extremely comfortable rocking chair when you read the names of this bowling attack, bar the first two names. Ntini, Pollock.... Telemachus, Hall, Peterson and bloody heck, Graeme Smith even sent down 4 overs! By the way, Boeta Dippenaar was part of the starting XI too. AB De Villiers got his first ODI 50 in the corresponding game.

What the comparison does show is that South Africa have progressed. They deserve their ranking as #1 team in the world now. A change in personnel, a change in thinking. But coming down from that spot has not seen Ponting's Aussies lose any of their guile or will to win.

A bowling attack that produces on the day will decide the series. On this front - South Africa have drawn an ace every time; Parnell and Van der Merwe. Australia have tried the same, but Geeves didn't get it right in Cape Town. Laughlin and Harwood don't have the quality (right now anyway; Lord knows what Hilfenhaus and Siddle could have produced if they were not being rested for the Ashes).

It is rare though that Bracken will have another bad game. The Aussies might have figured out how to play Van der Merwe.

Gut feel: See you in JHB for the decider on Friday.